Your unconscious sucks at math - why most people are bad at calculating risk

From David Brook's book, "The Social Animal":

Let's say you spent $1.10 on a pen and pad of paper. If you spent a dollar more for the pad than the pen, how  much did the pen cost?

Level 1 (the unconscious) wants to tell you that the pen cost 10 cents because in its dumb, blockheaded way, it wants to break the money into the $1 part and the 10-cent part, even though the real answer is that you spent 5 cents for the pen.

Because of this tendency, people are bad at calculating risks.  Level 1 develops an inordinate fear of rare but spectacular threats, but ignores threats that are around every day.  People fear planes, even though everybody knows car travel is more dangerous.  They fear chain saws, even though nearly ten times more people are injured each year on playground equipment.

Here's my review of the book:
Material lacks depth and fictional characters are insipid, October 28, 2011
Mr. Brooks covers lots of intriguing scientific facts and theories behind human behavior. The area that is emphasized the most is the importance of the subconscious mind, and how conscious thought is subservient to it. All of this material is presented through a couple of fictional characters and their story from birth through old age. For readers of non-fiction, this can be a bit of a put off. There is potential confusion surrounding the behavior and thoughts of the fictional characters and whether they have any factual basis or scientific merit. Mr. Brooks breaks away from the stories intermittently throughout the book to discuss the more serious topics, but intertwining fiction and non-fiction gives short shrift to both. While the material presented is pertinent and plentiful, the fictional account detracts and marginalizes the serious work here.

From the acknowledgements section, "This book is an attempt to... integrate science and psychology with sociology, politics, cultural commentary, and the literature of success."

A day after reading the book from cover to cover, I can recall considerably less factual material than fiction, but I'll never forget this: "Measured at its highest potential, the conscious mind still has a processing capacity 200,000 times weaker than the unconscious." Perhaps my unconscious mind feels differently about this book and I'm not aware of it...

Around Halloween 2011

Don't mess with Costco shopping carts!

From an AP article by Dara William titled "CORRALING CARTS; ANTI-THEFT DEVICE KEEPS SHOPPING BASKETS IN THEIR PLACE." - paraphrasing since the article is copyrighted:

According to the Supermarket Institute, a shopping cart is stolen every 90 seconds in the U.S.  In one year, 1.8 million were taken at a replacement cost of $175 million.

A couple of weeks ago, I noticed a sign on my Costco shopping cart with the warning message, "Attention Shoppers!  Our shopping carts will lock if taken beyond the parking lot perimeter."

I thought this was a bogus alert to scare shopping cart thieves.  So I decided to test this warning.  The video is below.  I took my wife to Costco to get a flu shot.  I visit Costco by myself almost always, so this was the perfect opportunity to test the alert system, especially given that my wife wasn't able to get the flu shot because it was a Sunday.  So her trip wasn't in vain.

Lo and behold, the front left wheel locked a little after I crossed the yellow line marking the end of the Costco parking lot.  If it weren't for a passer by car, I 'd have pushed the cart straight through the yellow line for a more dramatic display of the locked wheel.

Upon further examination of the locked wheel:

I noticed that wheel had a plastic cover unlike other wheels, suggesting there was some type of technology inside that wheel only.  Here's a description of anti-theft technology in shopping carts I found on Wikipedia:

"Electronic systems are sometimes used by retailers. Each shopping cart is fitted with an electronic locking wheel, or 'boot'. A transmitter with a thin wire is placed around the perimeter of the parking lot, and the boot locks when the cart leaves the designated area. Store personnel must then deactivate the lock with a hand-held remote to return the cart to stock. Often a line is painted in front of the broadcast range to warn customers that their cart will stop when rolled past the line. Unfortunately these systems are very expensive to install and although helpful are not foolproof. The wheels can be lifted over the electronic barrier and/or pushed hard enough that the locks break."

I got pied in the face....

For a Good Cause

We decided to have a "pie in the face" contest for our 2011 annual department meeting to raise money for the "Bread of Life" charity event.  The winning bidder would get to pie one of the four department leaders in the face.

Way before the "pie in the face" auction concluded, I'd heard through the grapevine there were powerful forces who had coalesced to pick me.  Two of my managers had organized a sizeable team of donors ("Pricing and Friends") through an underground operation the magnitude of a Jerry Lewis Telethon.  These "Friends" may have been Pricing friends, but they were no friends of mine.

I'd contemplated different excuses to skip getting a pie thrown in my face, but this was for an important charity event, so I decided to suck it up and accept my fate.

During the auction, I was sitting on the sidelines feeling dejected.  Then something extraordinary happened:  "Christina Welsh & Friends" joined forces with DA&R to outbid the seemingly invincible "Pricing & Friends" with deep pockets.  DA&R had bid $570.  "Christina & Friends" had a budget of $800.  So I figured I'm safe, and my spirits began to lift…until Margaret (my boss) joined "Pricing & Friends"!  I was now against Trump Enterprises, and my fate was summarily sealed.  I learned later, one of my managers had asked Margaret to join "Pricing & Friends" at the last second.  Lots of effort went into securing me the top spot.  I'm generally a very competitive person, but this ain't no "first place" to hang your hat on.  I was officially the BOSS Villain.

So they wrapped a couple of trash bags around my body with only my head sticking out.  Like smooth criminals, Brady and Galina did the honors, and just like that I felt like a celebrity.  Cameras were flashing with paparazzi everywhere.  I couldn't open my mouth to breathe, and had to keep my eyes shut.  After someone wiped my face, I opened my eyes and saw white everywhere.  I had to eat the excessive whipped cream and graham cracker crust blocking my mouth to find an opening to breathe.

Then it was Margaret's turn to get pied, and off I went to the restroom to wash off the remaining pieces of the pie.  An hour later, and my hair and face are beginning to smell like barf.  I'm heading to the gym now, and I'm not afraid to stink up the place… After all, it was for a good cause.

Step 1:

Step 2:

Step 3:

Why Do Some People Learn Faster?

Because they make it their business to care when they make a mistake, and are motivated enough to learn from it.  Now there's some scientific basis (biological proof) of how the mind works for fast and slow learners, and this article from Wired discusses it:

Why Do Some People Learn Faster?

Based on another scientific study of 5th graders, the ones who are praised for hard work outperformed the ones praised for being intelligent.

"After taking this difficult test, the two groups of students were then given the option of looking either at the exams of kids who did worse or those who did better. Students praised for their intelligence almost always chose to bolster their self-esteem by comparing themselves with students who had performed worse on the test. In contrast, kids praised for their hard work were more interested in the higher-scoring exams. They wanted to understand their mistakes, to learn from their errors, to figure out how to do better."

Romeo Santos Feat. Usher - Promise (Official)