November 5th 2024 election night was hardly over when it became painfully obvious Trump had won. Political pundits like to cite a plethora of reasons for this colossal democratic failure, but once again, as is always the case, it's the economy stupid, and in this case the runaway inflation. Since Biden took office in January 2020, prices are over 21% higher. Then to fight the inflation, the Federal Reserve added insult to injury by raising interest rates and made financing anything more difficult.
And here's the catch: There's nothing anyone in power could've done about this. The inflation was largely triggered by supply chain issues from the COVID-19 pandemic. Trump lost the election in 2020 because of the tectonic shock of the pandemic, and Harris lost yesterday because of the aftershock of the pandemic (inflation), and neither candidate was responsible for these events. This election result is not a verdict on immigration, abortion rights, Israel's war with Hamas, the funding of transgender inmate operations or other sideshows. Put anyone in office during these two election periods and they'd have been one-term administrations too. Jair Bolsonaro lost the Brazilian presidency in 2022 because of the pandemic, and the popular Jacinda Arden didn't even bother to re-run for the New Zealand presidency in 2023 because of the pandemic.
Now, let's turn to all the crazy shit that can happen in an unrestrained second Trump administration, because Trump will undoubtedly apply lessons learned during his first term to accomplish what he wasn't able to the first time around and then some. Below is a list of some of what he has said or is likely to enable. Let's revisit in four years to assess how close he came to fulfilling them. Before we get to the list, it's important to note Trump will push any agency or system that gets in the way of his agenda to its limit or breaking point. With the senate now in Republican control, and the House to follow, plus a sympathetic Supreme Court we have a once in a lifetime opportunity to observe the impacts of a few or more unprecedented and sometimes whacky - like two standard deviations from the mean - policy actions in what can only be described as a grand experiment.
And now, without further adue, what will or may happen in the next four years emanating from our unpredictable and impulsive 47th president:
o All DOJ cases against Trump will vanish, and he will not get a jail sentence for his Manhattan case hush money case convictions either
o The January 6th rioters/convicts will receive presidential pardons, and others too, as far and wide as Trump's pardoning power reaches
o Retribution against political enemies "from within"
o 13 million illegal immigrants shall be deported
o Ukraine war will come to an end with a peace treaty that cedes occupied territory to Russia
o Tariffs on all foreign imports, especially the ones from China and Mexico
o More abortion and/or abortion pill restrictions
o Resumption of cronyism and wholly unqualified and at times bat shit crazy people in top government jobs, e.g. RFK Jr. in charge of people's health
o Gutting of federal agencies and massive government spending cuts, aka cleansing the deep state
o More tax cuts and cuts in regulations that ultimately create bubbles and recessions again
o Control of federal reserve and other federal agencies under the executive branch. This could mean faster and steeper interest rate declines
o The presidency turned into a caliphate. The senate is already controlled by Republicans. If the house stays under Republican control, the magnitude of shit show multiplies by 10x. And this time around, Trump will have loyalist in his cabinet and as advisors. There will be no John Kellys to restrain him.
o More inflation and government debt
o A more empowered and unrestrained Israel - strikes against Iran's nuclear sites perhaps?
"And I will take you to me for a people, and I will be to you a God: and ye shall know that I am the LORD your God"
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